作者：刘鑫^1,2, 贾云献¹, 李孟涵³, 周杰¹

作者单位：1. 陆军工程大学石家庄校区, 河北 石家庄 050003;
2. 军事科学院系统工程研究院, 北京 100082;
3. 河北工业大学, 天津 300400

关键词：变失效阈值;多类型冲击过程;竞争失效;可靠性建模

摘要：

针对连续性退化过程中同时存在多种类型冲击的问题，在变失效阈值模型的基础上，建立考虑多种类型冲击的竞争失效模型。首先，基于变阈值失效模型分析多种冲击类型同时存在时对系统可靠性的影响，给出模型的主要失效模式；然后结合极值冲击模型给出竞争失效可靠性建模的一般方法，求解竞争失效可靠性模型的解析表达式；最后，以某微型发动机为研究对象，对该文提出的方法进行对比验证，证明该方法能有效防止对系统可靠性的盲目乐观估计，防止突发故障的发生。

Research of reliability modeling for competing failure considering multiple shock processes
LIU Xin^1,2, JIA Yunxian¹, LI Menghan³, ZHOU Jie¹
1. Shijiazhuang Campus, AEU, Shijiazhuang 050003, China;
2. Institute of Systems Engineering, Academy of Military Sciences, Beijing 100082, China;
3. Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300400, China
Abstract: The system is affected by the shock process during the operation, and the system failure is due to the competing result of the continuous degradation process and the shock process. Aiming at the problem that multiple shock processes may exist during the continuous degradation process, a competing failure model considering multiple shock processes is established. Firstly, the multiple shock influence for the system is studied based on the competing failure model with shift thresholds, and the failure modes are introduced. Then, the competing failure model is established based on the extreme shock model and the analytical expression of the proposed model is derived. Finally, taking a micro-engine as the object, the proposed method is tested to demonstrate that its effectiveness to prevent sudden failure occurrence.
Keywords: shift thresholds;multiple shock processes;competing failure;reliability modeling
2019, 45(12):7-13  收稿日期: 2018-07-30;收到修改稿日期: 2018-09-03
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（71401173）
作者简介: 刘鑫(1989-),男,山东淄博市人,助理研究员,博士,研究方向为可靠性、装备故障诊断及寿命预测
参考文献
[1] 赵建印. 基于性能退化数据的可靠性建模与应用研究[D]. 长沙:国防科学技术大学, 2005.
[2] SONG S L, COIT D W, FENG Q M. Reliability for systems of degrading components with distinct component shock sets[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2014, 132:115-124
[3] TAHANI C. Nonparametric predictive pairwise comparison with competing risks[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2014, 132:146-153
[4] ZHENG M, LIN R X, YU W. Competing risks data analysis under the accelerated failure time model with missing cause of failure[J]. The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 2016, 68:855-876
[5] NOOROSSANA R, LAGHAIE K S. System reliability with multiple failure modes and time scales[J]. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 2016, 32(3):1109-1126
[6] KRISTOFFER K, MARTEN O. An investigation of a fatigue model with two competing failure mechanisms[J]. International Journal of Fatigue, 2014, 64:131-139
[7] ZHANG X P, SHANG J Z, CHEN X, et al. Statistical inference of accelerated life testing with dependent competing failures based on copula theory[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2014, 63(3):764-780
[8] SONG S L, COIT D W, FENG Q M, et al. Reliability analysis for multi-component systems subject to multiple dependent competing failure processes[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2014, 63(1):331-345
[9] WANG H K, LI Y F, LIU Y, et al. Remaining useful life estimation under degradation and shock damage[J]. Proc IMechE Part O:J Risk and Reliability, 2015, 229(3):200-208
[10] ZHANG J, HUANG X Y, FANG Y T, et al. Optimal inspection-based preventive maintenance policy for three-state mechanical components under competing failure modes[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2016, 152:95-103
[11] 王华伟, 高军, 吴海桥. 基于竞争失效的航空发动机剩余寿命预测[J]. 机械工程学报, 2014, 50(6):197-205
[12] 赵建印, 刘芳, 孙权, 等. 基于竞争失效模型的金属化膜脉冲电容器产品可靠性研究[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2006(1):60-64
[13] 张英芝, 牛序磊, 申桂香, 等. 基于竞争失效模式的数控机床可靠性建模[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2014, 34(8):2144-2148
[14] 黄文平, 周经纶, 宁菊红, 等. 基于变失效阈值的竞争失效可靠性模型[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2017, 39(4):941-946
[15] RAFIEE K, FENG Q M, COIT D W. Reliability modeling for dependent competing failure processes with changing degradation rate[J]. IIE Transactions, 2014, 46(5):483-496
[16] TANNER D M, DUGGER M T. Wear mechanisms in a reliability methodology[P]. Spie MOEMS-MEMS, 2003.