作者：张优, 胡昌华, 李红增, 扈晓翔, 白灿, 张鹏

作者单位：火箭军工程大学控制工程系, 陕西 西安 710025

关键词：动态测量系统;动态误差分解与溯源;Wiener过程;精度预测

摘要：

针对一类内部各部件不可直接测量的动态测量设备，研究其精度退化规律，提出一种基于Wiener过程的独立部件精度预测的方法。该方法通过动态误差分解与溯源，以间接测量的方法得到精度损失的统计量。通过极大似然估计方法得到模型参数的初值，再采用贝叶斯理论对参数进行在线更新，进而预测系统各部件的精度。最后，以百分表精度退化实验为例，验证该模型预测的精度和可行性。

Accuracy prediction method of individual components based on Wiener process

ZHANG You, HU Changhua, LI Hongzeng, HU Xiaoxiang, BAI Can, ZHANG Peng

Dept. of Control Engineering, Rocket Force University of Engineering, Xi'an 710025, China

Abstract: This paper focuses on the accuracy degradation law of dynamic measuring system with internal parts which cannot be measured directly, in which, an accuracy prediction method of individual components based on Wiener process is proposed. Through dynamic error decomposition and tracing, the accuracy loss is calculated via indirect measurement through this method. The initial values of model parameters are obtained through maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), and the parameters obtained are updated through the Bayesian theory, and then the accuracy of each part of the system is predicted. In the end, the accuracy and feasibility of the model prediction are verified by taking the dial precision degradation experiment as an example.

Keywords: dynamic measurements system;dynamic error decomposition and tracing;Wiener progress;accuracy prediction

2018, 44(8): 8-12  收稿日期: 2018-01-11;收到修改稿日期: 2018-03-05

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金（61573365）

作者简介: 张优(1993-),男,陕西西安市人,硕士研究生,专业方向为动态测量

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