作者：孟亚峰¹, 韩荣利¹, 潘刚¹, 刘晓滨²

作者单位：1. 军械工程学院, 河北 石家庄 050003;
2. 71887部队保障部, 山东 蓬莱 265600

关键词：竞争失效; 加速寿命试验; 优化设计; Monte-Carlo方法

摘要：

针对竞争失效产品综合应力加速寿命试验存在试验时间长、费用高、效率低的问题,提出一种基于仿真的竞争失效产品综合应力加速寿命试验优化设计方法。采用Monte-Carlo进行仿真模拟,以正常使用应力下的p阶分位寿命渐进方差估计最小为目标,在各应力组合下试验截尾数大小给定的条件下,以试验应力水平大小作为设计变量,利用MLE理论进行统计分析,建立基于仿真的竞争失效产品综合应力加速寿命试验优化设计模型。通过实例分析表明该方法有效、可行,为电子装备寿命预测的加速试验方案优化设计提供技术支撑。

Optimal design of multiple stresses accelerated life test with competing risks base on simulation

MENG Ya-feng¹, HAN Rong-li¹, PAN Gang¹, LIU Xiao-bin²

1. Ordnance Engineering College, Shijiazhuang 050003, China;
2. 71887 Unit of PLA, Penglai 265600, China

Abstract: According to the problem of the long test time, high cost and low efficiency during the multiple stresses accelerated life test with competing risks. This paper presents a method of simulation based on optimal designs for multiple stresses accelerated life test with competing risks. The procedure of the test was simulated with Monte-Carlo. The asymptotic variance estimation of pth percentile of the lifetime distribution of the product on the use condition was considered as a goal function. On the conditions of test censoring numbers of corresponding stress given,and with each test stress level as the design variables, statistics and analysis were carried out with MLE theory, and the optimal designed model of multiple stresses accelerated life test with competing risks was established based on simulation. Simulation results verify the feasibility and the validity of this method, and provide technical support for optimal design for AT in life prediction of electronic equipment.

Keywords: competing risk; accelerated life test; optimal design; Monte-Carlo

2014, 40(1): 123-127  收稿日期: 2013-4-19;收到修改稿日期: 2013-6-12

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(61271153)

作者简介: 孟亚峰(1970-),男,河北石家庄市人,副教授,博士,主要从事武器系统性能检测与故障诊断方向研究。

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