作者：于本福¹, 闫相祯²

作者单位：1. 临沂大学土木工程与建筑学院, 山东 临沂 276000;
2. 中国石油大学(华东)储运与建筑工程学院, 山东 青岛 266580

关键词：地下储气库;区间理论;断层;危险系数;最大运行压力

摘要：

考虑岩体参数不确定性对不活动断层破坏的影响，将断层危险系数作为分析储气库最大运行压力的依据，利用测井资料及区间理论得到注气后断层危险系数的置信区间，根据断层危险系数置信区间得出储气库断层稳定的最大运行压力。利用该方法对国内某油田区块改建储气库后断层危险系数置信区间及最大运行压力进行预测，并与数值模拟结果进行比较。结果表明：随着断层倾角的增大，断层危险系数先增大后减小，并且当断层倾角与岩石内摩擦角ϕ的关系为=45+ϕ/2时，断层危险系数最大，断层最易破坏；考虑参数不确定性运用区间理论计算所得到的储气库最大运行压力为23.6 MPa，为保证储气库安全可选取最大运行压力置信区间的下限作为储气库最大运行压力。

Application of interval theory in maximum operating pressure prediction of gas storage in fault zone

YU Benfu¹, YAN Xiangzhen²

1. School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Linyi University, Linyi 276000, China;
2. College of Pipeline and Civil Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266580, China

Abstract: Considering the influence of rock parameters uncertainty on the damages to inactive faults,the maximum operating pressure for the stability of fault at gas storage was obtained according to the confidence interval of fault risk coefficient by taking the fault risk coefficient as the basis for maximum operating pressure analysis of gas storage and using the confidence interval of fault risk coefficient obtained according to the logging data and interval theory after gas injection.Using the above method,the confidence interval of risk coefficient and maximum operating pressure of an oilfield block in China after gas storage reconstruction were studied and compared with the analog results.The results show that the fault risk coefficient first increases and then decreases with the increase of fault dip,and the fault is in the most dangerous situation and easily be damaged when the relationship between fault dip angle (θ) and friction angle (ϕ) is θ=45°+ϕ/2.The maximum operating pressure of gas storage is obtained with the interval theory considering the rock parameters uncertainty is 23.6 MPa.In order to ensure the safety of underground gas storage,the lower limit value of maximum operating pressure confidence interval is chosen as the maximum operating pressure of underground gas storage.

Keywords: underground gas storage;interval theory;fault;risk coefficient;maximum operating pressure

2017, 43(10): 6-13  收稿日期: 2016-12-25;收到修改稿日期: 2017-02-09

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（51374228）

作者简介: 于本福(1987-),男,山东日照市人,讲师,博士,主要从事储油库、储气库及地下岩土结构安全可靠性研究。

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